This post was originally posted at TruthSage.com and is reposted here with permission.
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I have been wanting to write this post for more than a year. The signs have been subtle but they have been there and they have been growing, certainly in 2026 but even before that.
It is quite possible that the Russian Military, the Russian Armed Forces, will collapse. (Throughout the rest of this post I will mostly just call it the Russian Army. The term, as used here, refers to all branches of the Russian military but especially the Army.)
According to an AI search, “military collapses often occur when logistical failures, morale erosion, or loss of external support reach a tipping point, causing large, equipped forces to vanish or rout rapidly.”
Some examples of armies “suddenly” collapsing are listed below. It is worth noting that in many cases they were the bigger army considered to be more powerful and to whom victory was expected to belong.
- 1917- Russian Imperial Army
- 1918- Imperial German Army
- 1944- Japanese Burma Area Army
- 1975- South Vietnamese Army
- 2021- Afghan National Army
- 2024- Syrian Army
Common factors in or causes of a collapse include logistical issues or internal disintegration.
Another major factor in how a war goes is the motivation or objective of the participants. You can see more on this in our post, “American Example.”
Throughout 2026 Ukraine has been hitting Russian logistics hard and I believe that the Russian logistics have become very fragile and could lead to a collapse.
In addition the quality, training, experience, cohesiveness, and number of Russian troops have all declined.
Another reason for military campaigns failing is a loss of financial support. The Russian economy is struggling in many ways and there is a serious question as to whether or not Putin will be able to continue funding the war. No matter how bad you want to “order” or insist that something happens, there are points at which things just cannot be sustained.
Military collapses often seem sudden but usually if you look deeper into the circumstances they had been developing for some time.
So here are a few additional things to consider.
- The Russian Army is not making progress on the battlefield.
- If you look at the land that they have taken during this war they have only taken it after totally destroying whatever was there.
- The Russian Army has actually lost ground in some areas in 2026.
- Putin has basically resorted to focusing on bombing cities, on killing civilians and on trying to make Ukraine inhospitable. Russia is committing war crimes every day. (There should be a universal, worldwide outcry against this.)
- In my view one of the few things besides China, Iran and North Korea that has been propping Putin up has been US President Trump. I believe that Trump is losing his power and his leverage and will be less and less of a factor over the coming months.
- Even if Ukraine officially walked away from the areas that Russia currently occupies, I believe that Russia is too weak to rebuild them and as such would have trouble actually controlling them. I believe that guerrila type warfare would continue. You could use other terms like an insurgency or asymmetric warfare but I believe that government assests, resources and forces would continue to be attacked.
Is the Russian Army collapse certain to happen? No, but I would say that it is quite possible.
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